floornull --joint: the whole table under the d-matched null (every rung's drop size held at the steal filter's, only WHICH legs randomised) cell m d | n | v0 -> vS | P(a random d-drop flips this rung) t4 96 3 | 56 | unres -> fold *| 0.7143 t4 128 0 | 1 | fold -> fold | 0.0000 t4 160 1 | 8 | fold -> fold | 0.0000 t4 192 0 | 1 | unres -> unres | 0.0000 t4 224 1 | 8 | unres -> unres | 0.0000 t4 256 0 | 1 | unres -> unres | 0.0000 t4 288 1 | 8 | unres -> ntt *| 0.2500 t4 320 2 | 28 | unres -> ntt *| 0.8214 t4 384 1 | 8 | unres -> ntt *| 0.7500 t4 512 1 | 8 | ntt -> ntt | 0.0000 t8 96 2 | 28 | fold -> fold | 0.0000 t8 128 2 | 28 | unres -> fold *| 0.2143 t8 160 2 | 28 | unres -> fold *| 0.5357 t8 192 0 | 1 | unres -> unres | 0.0000 t8 224 1 | 8 | unres -> ntt *| 0.2500 t8 256 0 | 1 | ntt -> ntt | 0.0000 t8 288 0 | 1 | ntt -> ntt | 0.0000 t8 320 0 | 1 | ntt -> ntt | 0.0000 t8 384 3 | 56 | ntt -> ntt | 0.0000 t8 512 0 | 1 | ntt -> ntt | 0.0000 the steal filter flips 7 of 20 rungs. under the d-matched null the EXPECTED number of flips is 3.54, sd 1.15, and P(a random same-size drop flips 7 or more) = 0.0032. distribution of the flip count under that null: 0:0.003 1:0.032 2:0.145 3:0.307 4:0.317 5:0.157 6:0.036 7:0.003 READ THIS AGAINST THE PER-RUNG TABLE AND NOT INSTEAD OF IT. The two answer different questions and both answers are real: no INDIVIDUAL flip is established (every one is reproduced by chance 21% to 82% of the time, and three of them sit in 8-member nulls whose smallest attainable P is 0.125), while the SET of them is not chance - which says steal predicts WHICH leg owns the A/A worst, and nothing about whether any one rung's verdict can now be read. AND THIS IS A CALIBRATION, NOT A SIZED HYPOTHESIS TEST. The statistic is computed on the round that raised the question, so 0.0032 prices the coincidence and does not license a decision - the same limit the guest-steal retrospective states about its own nulls.